Annexure I

Theme I

Improvement of Global Analysis-Forecast System

Scientific Issue:

· Realistic representation of the global circulation in analysis and model forecast fields are of prime importance

· For good medium range forecast, the short range and the extended range forecast from the model have to be also good. We have to work in this direction by taking care of different steps like Quality Control, analysis, forecast model and Diagnostics

· Proper representation of tropical monsoon environment in a global model is a challenge to the scientific community worldwide. Joint work of mutual interest will lead to progress in understanding and skill upgradation

Plan of Action : NCEP and NCMRWF

· Radiance and rainfall assimilation for global SSI and ETA assimilation system code will be made available through FTP. NCMRWF scientists can make themselves familiar with it. If funding is available scientists can be sent for long period (one year) to work on some scientific problems identified by NCEP on global and ETA analysis system and gain expertise in that process. NCMRWF scientists can participate in grid point version of 3-D variational system of NCEP under testing.

· NCEP is exchanging global analysis/forecast with other centers. NCMRWF can participate in it, and exchange it’s analysis/forecast files through FTP This will help in inter-comparison and verification of output and learn the strengths and weaknesses over different regions / seasons.

· NCEP is deriving surface wind, TPWC and rain rate from SSM/I using it’s own neural network based algorithm (OMBNN3). The products may be made available through FTP in real time.

· Current Quality control code for different type of conventional and satellite data from NCEP will be made available to NCMRWF

· NCMRWF scientists can put new physics to NCMRWF T170 model from the current NCEP global model and provide feedback to NCEP on performances

· New Gravity wave drag code can be used from NCEP model. 30 seconds orography may be incorporated in NCMRWF model

· NCMRWF can try to put new radiation code AER in it’s global model and provide input to NCEP. Neural network based radiation if called every time step will be good.

· NCEP has plan to test 35 day forecast using global model. NCMRWF can participate and do evaluation for the Indian region and compare with NCMRWF extended range forecast from global model.

· Exchange information on statistical interpretation of model output and automation of local forecasts.

· Joint collaborative proposals with NCEP will be submitted for funding under Indo-US Forum to carry out research and development works of mutual interest.

Annexure II

Theme II

Mesoscale Models: Cloud and Land Surface Processes

Project 1 Mesoscale dynamics of the monsoons

· Intraseasonal Variability of the summer monsoon (e.g., role of the MJO, the break and revival of the monsoon)

· Surface heterogeneity and convection (e.g., land use, heavy rainfall events)

· Orographic effects on the semi-permanent features of the monsoon (e.g., LLJ, monsoon trough)

Project 2: Representation of physical processes in mesoscale

models

· Mesoscale assimilation with special data sets in the Indian region (e.g., satellite, radar, field experiment data)

· Real time prediction and model evaluation (e.g., monsoon depression, heavy rainfall, western disturbances and severe local storms)

· Prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones (e.g., initialization, re-intensification of land-falling cyclones)

· Sensitivity, validation and improvement of physical parameterizations (e.g., cloud-resolving models, coupled land air-sea models, field experiments)

Annexure III

Theme III

DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION

List of Projects:

No.	Title	Objective
1	Downscaling Regional Climate Forecast	Improve Regional Monsoon Forecast on Seasonal Time Scale
2	Understanding of Recent Failures of Statistical Seasonal Forecast	Diagnosis and Extension of statistical parameter for the Forecast of Monsoon
3.	Future Monsoon under Global Warming Scenarios	Snow Cover Monsoon Links; AGCM
4.	Seasonal Forecasts of Monsoon	Sensitivity of Monsoon Forecasts to Soil Wetness AGCM
5.	Coupling of NCMRWF/GCM to an appropriate Upper Ocean Model	Developing Monsoon Prediction Capability at NCMRWF with Coupled Models.
6.	Systematic Errors in Current Models for Monsoon Forecast	Evaluation of Current Monsoon Forecast Errors
7.	MJO and Monsoonal Dry and Wet Spells	Understanding of Deficiency in MJO Monsoon Relationship in current Models
8.	Developing a unified PBL Model for Improving Monsoon Forecasts in NWP Context	Sensitivity of Monsoon Forecasts to Different PBL Sensitivity Areas
9. 10.	Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with the FSU Superensemble Applied to Meso-scale Models Implementation of a high resolution regional model for Indian region	Examine Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal Multi-Model Performance and Evaluate the FSU Superensemble Improve regional precipitation forecasts.