EMMDA International Conference - 24-26 February 2020

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

Day 1: 24 February 2020
08:30 – 09:30 Registration
09:30 – 10:30 Inaugural Session
10:30 – 11:00 - High Tea
11:00 – 13:00: Technical Session 1 - Ensemble Methods in Global Weather Prediction
Chairperson: Zoltan Toth, ESRL/NOAA, USA
11:00 – 11:30 Eugenia Kalnay, UoM Can we improve substantially weather forecasts without cheating
11:30 – 12:00 Warren Tennant, Met Office, UK Recent developments in Global Ensemble Prediction at Met office, UK
12:00 – 12:20 Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD Probabilistic Forecasting in IMD: Current Status and Future Scope.
12:20 – 12:40 Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay,IITM Performance of high resolution ensemble prediction system in capturing extreme events over Indian region.
12:40 – 13:00 Joohyung Son, KMA Introduction to Korean Integrated Model (KIM) based globalensemble prediction system
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:30: Technical Session 2 - Ensemble methods in Data Assimilation -1
Chairperson: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, USA
14:00 – 14:30 Daryl Kleist, NCEP/NOAA Data Assimilation for the Unified Forecast System: Plans for GFS Version 16 and Progress of JEDI.
14:30 – 14:50 V.S. Prasad, NCMRWF 4D-Ens-Var analysis system at NCMRWF
14:50 – 15:10 John P. George, NCMRWF Hybrid Variational–Ensemble Data Assimilation in the NCUM NWP System and IMDAA Regional Reanalysis
15:10 – 15:30 Prashant Kumar, SAC Assimilation of INSAT-3D Thermal Infrared Window Imager Observation using Particle Filter
15:30 – 16:00 - Tea and Poster Session
16:00 – 17:40: Technical Session 2 - Ensemble Methods in Data Assimilation - 2
Chairperson: Daryl Kleist, NCEP/NOAA, USA
16:00 – 16:30 Zoltan Toth, ESRL/NOAA Ensembles: A Critical Review
16:30 – 17:00
Via Video Conference
Javier Amezcua, Reading University UK Assimilation of Atmospheric Infrasound Data to Constrain Winds using an EnKF
17:00 – 17:20 Ji-Hyun Ha, KMA Hybrid data assimilation in the KIM forecasting system at KMA
17:20 – 17:40 Amit Apte, ICTS, Bengaluru Hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter for Lagrangian data assimilation.
19:30 - 21:30 - Conference Dinner hosted by Secretary, MoES at India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
21:30 | End of day 1

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

DAY 2 – 25 February 2020
09:00 – 10:20: Technical Session 2 -Ensemble Methods in Data Assimilation – 3
Chairperson: E. N. Rajagopal, NCMRWF
09:00 – 09:20 Robert Maisha, SAWS, South Africa Ensemble forecasting and Data assimilation at SAWS.
09:20 – 09:40 Arya Paul, INCOIS LETKF-ROMS: An improved predictability system for the Indian Ocean.
09:40 – 10:00 Deepak Subramani, IISc Probabilistic Forecasting and Bayesian Data Assimilation using Dynamically Orthogonal Equations.
10:00 – 10:20 Siva Reddy Sanikommu, KAUST Efforts on Developing Efficient Ensemble Data Assimilation System for the Red Sea at KAUST
10:20 – 10:50 - Tea and Poster Session
10:50 – 14:30: Technical Session 3 – Ensemble Methods in Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting
Chairperson: Warren Tennant, Met Office, UK
10:50 – 11:20 Harry H. Hendon, BoM Overview of BoM Operational S2S Ensemble Prediction Systems and Future Plans.
11:20 – 11:40 A K Sahai, IITM Ensemble Prediction System for Sub-seasonal Variability
11:40 – 12:00 A. Suryachandra Rao, IITM Ensemble Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon
12:00– 12:20 O. P. Sreejith, IMD Pune Present operational seasonal Forecast System of IMD
12:10 – 12:30 Pil-Hun Chang, KMA Climate Prediction System. of KMA: Current Status and Plans
12:40 – 13:40 - Lunch
13:40 – 14:10
Via Video Conference
Roberto Buizza, ECMWF/Sant'Anna SAS, Pisa Data assimilation and ensembles: two invaluable tools to increase predictability and quantify uncertainty
14:10 – 14:30 A. K. Mitra, NCMRWF NCMRWF Coupled Ensemble Extended Range Prediction System.
14:30 – 16:10: Technical Session 4 - Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems
Chairperson: Harry Hendon, BoM, Australia
14:30 – 15:00
Via Video Conference
Stuart Webster, Met Office, UK Overview of Convection Permitting Ensembles Work at the Met Office
15:00 – 15:30
Via Video Conference
Stuart Moore, NIWA, New Zealand Convective scale ensemble at NIWA
15:30 – 15:50 Suneet Diwedi Energetically Consistent Stochastic and Deterministic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Schemes for Atmosphere –Ocean Models
15:50 – 16:10 Govindan Kutty, IIST, Thiruvanthapuram Understanding the Predictability of Extreme Weather Events using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation
16:10 – 16:40 - Tea and Poster Session
16:40 – 17:50: Technical session 5 - Verification of Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Chairperson: Michael Naughton, BoM, Australia
16:40 – 17:10
Via Video Conference
Martin Leutbecher, ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting at ECMWF.
17:10 – 17:30 Raghavendra Ashrit, NCMRWF Application of Spatial Verification Methods for Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts over India
17:30 – 17:50 Abhijit Sarkar, NCMRWF Verification of Regional Ensemble Prediction System at NCMRWF
19:30 - 21:30 Special Dinner hosted by DGM, IMD
21:30 | End of day 2

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

DAY 3 – 26 February 2020
09:00 – 11:40: Technical Session 6 - Applications of Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Chairperson: Prof. A. Chandrasekar, IIST, Thiruvananthapuram
09:00 – 09:30 Eugenia Kalnay, UoM (i) Leveraging oscillatory modes to improve forecasts of chaotic processes, with applications to the Indian monsoon
(ii) Effective Assimilation of Altimetry Observations with the CFS-LETKF System
09:30 – 10:00 Michael Naughton, BoM BoM Development and Use of Ensembles in Numerical Weather Prediction and Applications.
10:00 – 10:20 Ravi S Nanjundiah, Director, IITM Ensemble Forecast and their Application from Short Range to Seasonal Scales
10:20 – 10:40 S. C. Kar, NCMRWF Probabilistic Predictions for Hydrology Applications.
10:40 – 11:00 - Tea and Poster Session
11:00 – 11:20 C Balaji, IIT-Madras Ingesting Multi-satellite Radiances to Improve the Predictability of Regional NWP Model
11:20 – 11:40 Boonlert Archevarahuprok, TMD TMD’s Numerical Weather Prediction System
12:00 – 13:00: Poster Presentations
13:00 – 14:00 – Lunch
14:00 – 15:00: Concluding Session
Panel discussion Chairperson: Ravi S Nanjundiah
Panel members: E. Kalnay, C. Balaji, Z. Toth, W.Tennant, E. N. Rajagopal, Harry Hendon
15:00 - 15:30 Tea
15:30 | End of day 3
Day 1: Theme - Global Ensemble/DA
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. Ch. P. R. Sandeep (RS) IIT, Madras GSI Based Three-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation to Improve the Short Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon.
2. Paromita Chakraborty NCMRWF NEPS-G forecast Skill of Indian Summer Monsoon 2018.
3. T. Arulalan NCMRWF Prediction of Western Disturbances Tracks using NEPS.
4. Buddhi Prakash Jangid NCMRWF Quantifying the differences in the ensemble forecasts during calm and perturbed weather conditions.
5. Dr. Sujata Pattanayak NCMRWF Verification of NCMRWF Global Data Assimilation System.
6. Abhishek Lodh NCMRWF ASCAT Soil Moisture Assimilation in NCUM Regional NWP System.
7. M. T. Bushair NCMRWF Impact of flow dependency in deterministic analysis and forecast.

Day 2: Theme - DA/Convective Ensemble/Seasonal forecast
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. S. Kiran Prasad NCMRWF Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events by NCMRWF ensemble prediction systems.
2. K Vijaya Kumari S V University Impact of assimilation of SCATSAT-1 wind data on simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal.
3. Ms. Shruti Verma BHU, Varanasi Performance assessment of REGional Climate Model for Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO.
4. Ananya Karmakar NCMRWF Assessment of BoB Upper Ocean features in NCMRWF NEMO.
5. Saheed P. P. NCMRWF Sea ice forecast for polar region using coupled model.

Day 3: Theme - Application
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. Babitha George IIST, Trivandrum An Ensemble-Based Analysis of Two Extreme Rainfall Events over Kerala.
2. M. Sateesh NCMRWF Nowcasting Products Using Satellite and Global NWP Data.
3. Sushant Kumar NCMRWF NCMRWF Data Product for Renewable Energy Applications.
4. Harvir Singh NCMRWF Bias Correcting the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast for Heatwave Prediction over India and its Verification.
5. S. Karunasagar NCMRWF Extremely Heavy Rainfall (EHR) over Mumbai during 2019: Observations and Model Forecasts.
6. Sakila Saminathan IIT, Palakkad Improving Short to Medium Range Precipitation Forecasts in India using Analog Approach.
7. Kuldeep Sharma NCMRWF Improved Skill in Predicting Extreme Rains over Complex Terrain in India during recent Years.

Weather at Delhi as per IMD's Report

Tourist Places

Red Fort (18 km)

Taj Mahal (218 km)

Qutub Minar (28 km)

Lotus Temple (22 km)

India Gate (18 km)

Akshardham Temple (14 km)

Jama Masjid (18 km)

Humayun’s Tomb (17 km)

Note: Marked Distance from NCMRWF, Noida

Disclaimer : NCMRWF is a Research and Development Organization.

The products and the conclusion drawn thereof are based on Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models being run at NCMRWF