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NATIONAL CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE ORGANISATION
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
EMMDA International Conference - 24-26 February 2020
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  • National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

    Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)

    Government of India

    ANNOUNCEMENT

    International Conference on Ensemble Methods

    in Modelling and Data Assimilation (EMMDA)

    24-26 February 2020


    Although remarkable success have been achieved in improving forecast skill by employing state of the art numerical prediction systems and adopting latest data assimilation techniques, it is well known that some amount of uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction is inevitable. In order to address the forecast uncertainty, leading forecasting centres of the world have developed Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) which provides probabilistic forecasting of weather. India has recently operationally implemented two high resolution (~12 km) global EPS. A well-coordinated collaborative research and development work between national and international centres are further required for progressively improving the skill of EPS.

    In order to provide a platform for discussions and deliberations on the present status, future prospects and optimum use of EPS, an international conference on “Ensemble Methods in Modelling and Data Assimilation (EMMDA)” is being organised during 24-26 February 2020. The major themes of the conference are:

    1. Ensemble methods in Global Weather Prediction
    2. Ensemble methods in Data Assimilation
    3. Ensemble methods in Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting
    4. Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems
    5. Verification of Ensemble weather forecasts
    6. Applications of Ensemble weather forecasts

    Participation in the conference will be by invitation only.

    Leading experts from ECMWF, Met Office, NOAA, KMA, BoM, NIWA, NCAR, JMA, CMA, CMC & University of Maryland are expected to participate in the conference.

    Contact e-mail: events@ncmrwf.gov.in

    Venue: Ambar Auditorium, NCMRWF, A-50, Sector 62, Noida-201 309, India

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

Day 1: 24 February 2020
08:30 – 09:30 Registration
09:30 – 10:30 Inaugural Session
10:30 – 11:00 - High Tea
11:00 – 13:00: Technical Session 1 - Ensemble Methods in Global Weather Prediction
Chairperson: Zoltan Toth, ESRL/NOAA, USA
11:00 – 11:30 Eugenia Kalnay, UoM Can we improve substantially weather forecasts without cheating abstract Presentation
11:30 – 12:00 Warren Tennant, Met Office, UK Recent developments in Global Ensemble Prediction at Met office, UK abstract Presentation
12:00 – 12:20 Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD Probabilistic Forecasting in IMD: Current Status and Future Scope. Presentation
12:20 – 12:40 Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay,IITM Performance of high resolution ensemble prediction system in capturing extreme events over Indian region. abstract Presentation
12:40 – 13:00 Joohyung Son, KMA Introduction to Korean Integrated Model (KIM) based globalensemble prediction system abstract Presentation
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:30: Technical Session 2 - Ensemble methods in Data Assimilation -1
Chairperson: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, USA
14:00 – 14:30 Daryl Kleist, NCEP/NOAA Data Assimilation for the Unified Forecast System: Plans for GFS Version 16 and Progress of JEDI. abstract Presentation
14:30 – 14:50 V.S. Prasad, NCMRWF 4D-Ens-Var analysis system at NCMRWF abstract Presentation
14:50 – 15:10 John P. George, NCMRWF Hybrid Variational–Ensemble Data Assimilation in the NCUM NWP System and IMDAA Regional Reanalysis abstract Presentation
15:10 – 15:30 Prashant Kumar, SAC Assimilation of INSAT-3D Thermal Infrared Window Imager Observation using Particle Filter abstract Presentation
15:30 – 16:00 - Tea and Poster Session
16:00 – 17:40: Technical Session 2 - Ensemble Methods in Data Assimilation - 2
Chairperson: Daryl Kleist, NCEP/NOAA, USA
16:00 – 16:30 Zoltan Toth, ESRL/NOAA Ensembles: A Critical Review abstract
16:30 – 17:00
Via Video Conference		 Javier Amezcua, Reading University UK Assimilation of Atmospheric Infrasound Data to Constrain Winds using an EnKF abstract Presentation
17:00 – 17:20 Ji-Hyun Ha, KMA Hybrid data assimilation in the KIM forecasting system at KMA abstract Presentation
17:20 – 17:40 Amit Apte, ICTS, Bengaluru Hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter for Lagrangian data assimilation. abstract Presentation
19:30 - 21:30 - Conference Dinner hosted by Secretary, MoES at India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
21:30 | End of day 1

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

DAY 2 – 25 February 2020
09:00 – 10:20: Technical Session 2 -Ensemble Methods in Data Assimilation – 3
Chairperson: E. N. Rajagopal, NCMRWF
09:00 – 09:20 Robert Maisha, SAWS, South Africa Ensemble forecasting and Data assimilation at SAWS. abstract Presentation
09:20 – 09:40 Arya Paul, INCOIS LETKF-ROMS: An improved predictability system for the Indian Ocean. abstract Presentation
09:40 – 10:00 Deepak Subramani, IISc Probabilistic Forecasting and Bayesian Data Assimilation using Dynamically Orthogonal Equations. Presentation
10:00 – 10:20 Siva Reddy Sanikommu, KAUST Efforts on Developing Efficient Ensemble Data Assimilation System for the Red Sea at KAUST abstract Presentation
10:20 – 10:50 - Tea and Poster Session
10:50 – 14:30: Technical Session 3 – Ensemble Methods in Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting
Chairperson: Warren Tennant, Met Office, UK
10:50 – 11:20 Harry H. Hendon, BoM Overview of BoM Operational S2S Ensemble Prediction Systems and Future Plans. abstract Presentation
11:20 – 11:40 A K Sahai, IITM Ensemble Prediction System for Sub-seasonal Variability Presentation
11:40 – 12:00 A. Suryachandra Rao, IITM Ensemble Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Presentation
12:00– 12:20 O. P. Sreejith, IMD Pune Present operational seasonal Forecast System of IMD abstract Presentation
12:10 – 12:30 Pil-Hun Chang, KMA Climate Prediction System. of KMA: Current Status and Plans abstract Presentation
12:40 – 13:40 - Lunch
13:40 – 14:10
Via Video Conference		 Roberto Buizza, ECMWF/Sant'Anna SAS, Pisa Data assimilation and ensembles: two invaluable tools to increase predictability and quantify uncertainty abstract Presentation
14:10 – 14:30 A. K. Mitra, NCMRWF NCMRWF Coupled Ensemble Extended Range Prediction System. Presentation
14:30 – 16:10: Technical Session 4 - Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems
Chairperson: Harry Hendon, BoM, Australia
14:30 – 15:00
Via Video Conference		 Stuart Webster, Met Office, UK Overview of Convection Permitting Ensembles Work at the Met Office abstract Presentation
15:00 – 15:30
Via Video Conference		 Stuart Moore, NIWA, New Zealand Convective scale ensemble at NIWA abstract Presentation
15:30 – 15:50 Suneet Diwedi Energetically Consistent Stochastic and Deterministic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Schemes for Atmosphere –Ocean Models Presentation
15:50 – 16:10 Govindan Kutty, IIST, Thiruvanthapuram Understanding the Predictability of Extreme Weather Events using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation abstract Presentation
16:10 – 16:40 - Tea and Poster Session
16:40 – 17:50: Technical session 5 - Verification of Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Chairperson: Michael Naughton, BoM, Australia
16:40 – 17:10
Via Video Conference 		Martin Leutbecher, ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting at ECMWF. abstract Presentation
17:10 – 17:30 Raghavendra Ashrit, NCMRWF Application of Spatial Verification Methods for Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts over India abstract Presentation
17:30 – 17:50 Abhijit Sarkar, NCMRWF Verification of Regional Ensemble Prediction System at NCMRWF abstract Presentation
19:30 - 21:30 Special Dinner hosted by DGM, IMD
21:30 | End of day 2

Scientific Programme of International Conference EMMDA-2020

DAY 3 – 26 February 2020
09:00 – 11:40: Technical Session 6 - Applications of Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Chairperson: Prof. A. Chandrasekar, IIST, Thiruvananthapuram
09:00 – 09:30 Eugenia Kalnay, UoM (i) Leveraging oscillatory modes to improve forecasts of chaotic processes, with applications to the Indian monsoon
(ii) Effective Assimilation of Altimetry Observations with the CFS-LETKF System 		abstract abstract Presentation Presentation
09:30 – 10:00 Michael Naughton, BoM BoM Development and Use of Ensembles in Numerical Weather Prediction and Applications. abstract Presentation
10:00 – 10:20 Ravi S Nanjundiah, Director, IITM Ensemble Forecast and their Application from Short Range to Seasonal Scales Presentation
10:20 – 10:40 S. C. Kar, NCMRWF Probabilistic Predictions for Hydrology Applications. abstract Presentation
10:40 – 11:00 - Tea and Poster Session
11:00 – 11:20 C Balaji, IIT-Madras Ingesting Multi-satellite Radiances to Improve the Predictability of Regional NWP Model abstract Presentation
11:20 – 11:40 Boonlert Archevarahuprok, TMD TMD’s Numerical Weather Prediction System abstract Presentation
12:00 – 13:00: Poster Presentations
13:00 – 14:00 – Lunch
14:00 – 15:00: Concluding Session
Panel discussion Chairperson: Ravi S Nanjundiah
Panel members: E. Kalnay, C. Balaji, Z. Toth, W.Tennant, E. N. Rajagopal, Harry Hendon
15:00 - 15:30 Tea
15:30 | End of day 3
Day 1: Theme - Global Ensemble/DA
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. Ch. P. R. Sandeep (RS) IIT, Madras GSI Based Three-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation to Improve the Short Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon. abstract
2. Paromita Chakraborty NCMRWF NEPS-G forecast Skill of Indian Summer Monsoon 2018. abstract
3. T. Arulalan NCMRWF Prediction of Western Disturbances Tracks using NEPS. abstract
4. Buddhi Prakash Jangid NCMRWF Quantifying the differences in the ensemble forecasts during calm and perturbed weather conditions. abstract
5. Dr. Sujata Pattanayak NCMRWF Verification of NCMRWF Global Data Assimilation System. abstract
6. Abhishek Lodh NCMRWF ASCAT Soil Moisture Assimilation in NCUM Regional NWP System. abstract
7. M. T. Bushair NCMRWF Impact of flow dependency in deterministic analysis and forecast. abstract

Day 2: Theme - DA/Convective Ensemble/Seasonal forecast
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. S. Kiran Prasad NCMRWF Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events by NCMRWF ensemble prediction systems. abstract
2. K Vijaya Kumari S V University Impact of assimilation of SCATSAT-1 wind data on simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. abstract
3. Ms. Shruti Verma BHU, Varanasi Performance assessment of REGional Climate Model for Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO. abstract
4. Ananya Karmakar NCMRWF Assessment of BoB Upper Ocean features in NCMRWF NEMO. abstract
5. Saheed P. P. NCMRWF Sea ice forecast for polar region using coupled model. abstract

Day 3: Theme - Application
S No. Name of Author Affiliation Poster Title
1. Babitha George IIST, Trivandrum An Ensemble-Based Analysis of Two Extreme Rainfall Events over Kerala. abstract
2. M. Sateesh NCMRWF Nowcasting Products Using Satellite and Global NWP Data. abstract
3. Sushant Kumar NCMRWF NCMRWF Data Product for Renewable Energy Applications. abstract
4. Harvir Singh NCMRWF Bias Correcting the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast for Heatwave Prediction over India and its Verification. abstract
5. S. Karunasagar NCMRWF Extremely Heavy Rainfall (EHR) over Mumbai during 2019: Observations and Model Forecasts. abstract
6. Sakila Saminathan IIT, Palakkad Improving Short to Medium Range Precipitation Forecasts in India using Analog Approach. abstract
7. Kuldeep Sharma NCMRWF Improved Skill in Predicting Extreme Rains over Complex Terrain in India during recent Years. abstract

  • The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) is a Centre of Excellence in Weather and Climate Modelling under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The mission of the Centre is to continuously develop advanced numerical weather prediction systems, with increased reliability and accuracy over India and neighboring regions through research, development and demonstration of new and novel applications, maintaining the highest level of knowledge, skills and technical bases.

    Our Location

    Nearest Metro Station : Noida Electronic City (Blue Line)

    National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF),
    Ministry of Earth Sciences
    A-50, Sector-62, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, Pin: 201309, India

    +91-120-2419401
    Route Map between NCMRWF and Radisson Blu Kaushambi Delhi Ncr

    Route Map between NCMRWF and NIB Guest House

Weather at Delhi as per IMD's Report

Tourist Places

Red Fort (18 km)

Taj Mahal (218 km)

Qutub Minar (28 km)

Lotus Temple (22 km)

India Gate (18 km)

Akshardham Temple (14 km)

Jama Masjid (18 km)

Humayun’s Tomb (17 km)


Note: Marked Distance from NCMRWF, Noida

Disclaimer : NCMRWF is a Research and Development Organization.

The products and the conclusion drawn thereof are based on Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models being run at NCMRWF